Harbor Repair: choose the next action

# Harbor Repair strategy and proof audit — harbor/2

**Decision:** The September funnel supports validating the booking path and permitted customer proof before seeking more leads. The corrected qualified count is 40, so 55.6% of leads qualified and 45% of qualified contacts booked. The target fits stated capacity, but margin, channel attribution and operational availability remain unknown.

## Scope and source ledger

This is the corrected revision of the same synthetic exercise, using `harbor-v1.json`, correction `harbor-correction-v2.json`, and the supplied approved method snapshot (`AUDIT-METHOD-2026.10.02`). The maintained method URL was not opened; no claim is made that it was read. No live tools or external actions were used. V1 files are retained as history; this report's current facts use harbor/2 only.

| ID | Supplied source / date / scope | Supports | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | Synthetic owner brief, 2026-10-06 | Business, offer, buyer, goal, baseline, target, capacity, authority | OBSERVED as supplied; not independently verified |
| S2 | Synthetic CRM September export, dated 2026-10-01; 2026-09-01–09-30; one pipeline, distinct contacts; no channel attribution; corrected by C1 on 2026-10-06 | Leads 72, qualified 40, booked 18, completed 12 | OBSERVED as supplied; account/read not independently verified |
| S3 | Synthetic invoiced revenue export, dated 2026-10-01; same September completed cohort | Revenue $18,000 for 12; gross margin null | OBSERVED as supplied; account/read not independently verified |
| S4 | Synthetic content inventory, 2026-10-06 | Three stories; permission unknown and offer mapping missing | OBSERVED as supplied |
| S5 | Synthetic website observation, 2026-10-06 | CTA and story-link count; booking steps unknown | OBSERVED as supplied; independent site check not performed |
| S6 | Synthetic identity record, 2026-10-06 | Graph identity field and unknown panel/claim | OBSERVED as supplied; no independent search observation |
| C1 | Synthetic CRM owner correction, 2026-10-06, supersedes qualified count in S2 | Qualified contacts 40 replaces 36; all other listed counts unchanged | OBSERVED as supplied; same exercise, not a new execution |

## Business map

```mermaid
flowchart LR
  G[Goal: 18 completed jobs/month within 90 days] --> B[Local homeowners]
  B --> O[Booked home repair visits]
  O --> P[3 customer stories; permission unknown; offer mapping missing]
  P --> N[Website CTA: Contact us; booking steps unknown]
  N --> M[Completed jobs/month: 12 supplied September baseline]
  M --> T[Target 18; stated capacity 20]
```

The three stories are the strongest supplied proof inventory, but permission is unknown and none is mapped to the offer. “Contact us” and unknown booking steps leave an unmeasured gap between interest and booking. These are hypotheses for investigation, not evidence that a page change will increase completed jobs.

## Current findings and measures

| Measure | Current value | Basis |
|---|---:|---|
| September leads | 72 | S2; unchanged by C1 |
| Qualified / leads | 40 / 72 = 55.6% | S2 as corrected by C1; exact ratio 5/9 |
| Booked / qualified | 18 / 40 = 45% | S2 as corrected by C1; exact ratio |
| Completed / booked | 12 / 18 = 66.7% | S2; unchanged by C1 |
| Completed / leads | 12 / 72 = 16.7% | S2; unchanged by C1 |
| Revenue per completed job | $18,000 / 12 = $1,500 | S3; average revenue, not profit/margin |
| Target change from baseline | +6 jobs/month; +50% | S1 |
| Target use of stated capacity | 18 / 20 = 90% | S1; 2 jobs/month stated headroom |

The corrected qualification rate is 5/9 (55.555…%); it is displayed to one decimal place. The corrected booked/qualified rate is 45%. Neither rate establishes channel quality or causation. The target is below stated capacity, but actual available capacity and achievable demand are unknown. No ROI can be calculated.

## Panel and exam

- Graph identity: **OBSERVED in supplied record only** (S6); independent check not performed.
- Visible search Knowledge Panel: **UNKNOWN** (S6).
- Owner claim: **UNKNOWN** (S6).
- Exam: **unscored** (`null`). No approved exam/version, weights, coverage, or template was supplied; no score is assigned.

## Prioritized actions for Jordan

These are proposed for approval. The synthetic authority allows private report files only; it does not authorize implementation, publishing, spending, scheduling or contact. Deadlines are relative to 2026-10-06.

| Rank | Action / first step | Owner | Deadline | Dependency | Observable completion check |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Review three stories; confirm publication permission and map each permitted story to the offer and buyer concern. | Jordan | Within 7 days | Permission/source confirmation | Each story has permission status and offer/buyer mapping; no unapproved story is used. |
| 2 | Walk the contact-to-booking path; define booking/completion counts and how each handoff is recorded. | Jordan | Within 14 days | Booking process and CRM access | Written steps and event definitions; a test inquiry can be traced to a booking record. |
| 3 | After actions 1–2, decide whether to test a specific booking CTA and offer-matched proof; set baseline and comparison window first. | Jordan | Within 21 days | Story permission and booking-path findings | Written test decision, metric, baseline, window and owner; no result claimed before measurement. |
| 4 | Supply gross margin, channel attribution and budget/capacity view before any paid acquisition or spend decision. | Jordan | Before any spend decision | Source exports and owner judgment | Margin/channel fields documented or explicitly unavailable; spend decision recorded. |

Action priority is based on directly evidenced gaps. Any lift from proof or CTA changes remains a hypothesis. None of these actions is represented as executed.

## Open inputs and GCT questions

- What gross margin applies to September jobs, and what labor/material capacity remains at 18 jobs?
- Which channels produced leads, qualified contacts, bookings and completions? Attribution is absent.
- What budget, if any, is available? No spend recommendation is grounded without margin and budget.
- Do the three stories have publication permission, and which buyer concern/result does each support?
- What are the booking steps and tracking definitions?
- Is a Knowledge Panel visible in a specified search context, and has Jordan claimed it?
- GCT: What result matters most, what story/page/offer material may be used, and which local-homeowner audience should it address?

## Weekly Metrics → Analysis → Action

Proposed first weekly review: **2026-10-13**, owned by Jordan. This is a recommendation in the report, not a scheduled event.

| Metric / source | Interpretation | Next owned action |
|---|---|---|
| Leads, qualified, booked, completed jobs; S2 corrected by C1 | Compare same-period stage counts and definitions with this baseline; do not infer channel cause. | Jordan checks definitions and records the next evidenced gap. |
| Revenue and gross margin; S3 plus cost source | Keep revenue separate from contribution/profit; spend stays open while margin is missing. | Jordan supplies margin or records it unavailable. |
| Story permission and offer mapping; S4 | Establish which proof can be used and whether it fits the offer. | Jordan completes story review. |
| Booking path and CTA; S5 plus booking records | Establish whether an observable traceable path exists. | Jordan documents steps and measurement before a test. |

## Correction history

C1, received 2026-10-06, corrects S2 qualified contacts from **36 to 40** after deduplication review. Current harbor/2 uses **40** everywhere. The v1 values are retained only here as superseded history: qualified = 36; qualified/leads = 50%; booked/qualified = 50%. They are retired and are not current findings. Leads 72, booked 18, completed 12 and S3 revenue $18,000 are unchanged. This was an in-place correction of the same exercise, not a new execution.

## QA and execution receipt

| Check | Result | Evidence / limit |
|---|---|---|
| Identity | UNKNOWN | Supplied record only; independent verification absent; visible panel and claim remain unknown. |
| Sources | PASS for fixture scope | S1–S6 and C1 represented; no live source was accessed. |
| Arithmetic | PASS | Corrected funnel ratios and unchanged goal/capacity arithmetic recalculated. |
| Exam/version | PASS | Unscored default honored; exam null. |
| Unknowns | PASS | Missing values remain unknown/null, never zero. |
| Correction propagation | PASS | harbor/2 qualified count 40 and derived rates updated in summary, table, map context, actions and weekly review; retired claims appear only in labeled history. |
| Ownership | PASS | Proposed actions name Jordan, deadline, dependency and observable check; not represented as completed. |
| Visual rendering | UNKNOWN | Mermaid source present; renderer not checked. PDF/other exports: NOT CHECKED. |

**Execution:** mode `synthetic_exercise`; runtime `Codex`; actual model `UNKNOWN`; surfaced instruction family `GPT-6`; requested model `gpt-6-luna`; actual routing and effort `UNKNOWN`. Method `AUDIT-METHOD-2026.10.02` supplied snapshot only; prompt `BUSINESS STRATEGY AUDIT STARTER 1.0.0`; inputs `harbor/1` plus correction `harbor/2` / C1. Local file read/write only. No browsing, connectors, or external actions. Elapsed time, allowance/cost, retries and rework: UNKNOWN. No additional business result or delivery is claimed.